生产性服务业与制造业的内生与关联效应——基于投入产出结构分解技术的实证研究

本文将区域投入产出模型的结构分解技术应用于生产性服务业与制造业的关系研究中,该方法在深入探讨两者之间关联性的基础上可以考察产业的内生增长情况。研究的主要结论有:第一,经济发展过程中,产业自身机制建设的重要性大于产业之间的关联作用,这在制造业部门表现尤为明显,而对于生产性服务业而言,其对制造业的溢出效应同样不容忽视;第二,制造业对经济增长的拉动力量高于生产性服务业,这与生产性服务业强有力地支持了制造业发展不无关系,相反,制造业对于生产性服务业的溢出效应不太明显;第三,从生产性服务业分部门来看,内生增长效应方面,交通运输仓储和邮政业、信息传输计算机服务和软件业、租赁和商业服务业、科学研究技术服务和地质勘探业趋于上升,但金融业和房地产业仍有待改善。关联效应方面,应注重增强金融业对制造业的溢出能力;第四,制造业分部门中,内生效应呈现较大幅度的增长,尤其是橡胶制品业、印刷业记录媒介的复制以及绝大多数技术密集型产业。除纺织业、橡胶制品业、饮料制造业、烟草加工业、印刷业记录媒介的复制、文教体育用品制造业、医药制造业、电子及通信设备制造业外,其他行业部门应进一步加强其对生产性服务业的关联拉动力。

Endogenous and Correlation Effects of Producer Services and Manufacturing Sectors ---An Empirical Research Based on Structural Decomposition Technique of Input-Output Model

In this article,the structural decomposition technique of regional input-output model is creatively applied to relationship between producer service and manufacture, on the basis of further discussing the linkage between producer service and manufacture, this method can investigate endogenous growth of industry. The main research conclusions conclude ： first, in the process of economic development, the importance of industry＇s mechanism construction is greater than industry linkage, which is particularly evident in the manufacturing sector,as for the producer service, its spillover effect for manufacturing in- dustry should not be ignored. Second,the driving force led by manufacturer for economic growth is greater than producer serv- ice,this is close with that producer service supports the development of manufacturing industry, on the contrary, the spillover effect caused by manufacturing industry for the producer service is not too obvious. Third, from the sub sectors of producer service, on the endogenous growth effect, transportation storage and postal industry, information transmission, computer service and software industry,leasing and business services, scientific research and technical services and geological prospecting in- dustry tends to rise, but the financial industry and real estate industry still needs to be improved, on the linkage effect, we should pay attention to strengthening the spillovers ability led by financial sector for the manufacturing industry. Fourth, in the manufacturing divisions, endogenous effect appears relatively substantially growth, especially the rubber products industry, the printing industry record medium reproduction and most technology intensive industry, in addition to the textile industry, rubber industry, beverage manufacturing and tobacco processing, printing record medium reproduction, cultural and sports goods man- ufacturing, pharmaceutical manufacturing, electronic and communication equipment manufacturing industry, other departments should further strengthen