| 产业结构变迁对经济波动的动态影响研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 彭冲,李春风,李玉双.产业结构变迁对经济波动的动态影响研究[J].产业经济研究,2013(3):91-100. |
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| 作者姓名： | 彭冲 李春风 李玉双 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 湖南大学经济与贸易学院,湖南长沙,410079
2. 嘉兴学院商学院,浙江嘉兴,314001 |
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| 基金项目： | 教育部新世纪优秀人才支持计划资助项目,国家社科基金项目"我国商品市场周期阶段与影响因素分析",湖南省哲学社会科学基金奖励项目"湖南经济周期波动的影响因素研究" |
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| 摘 要： | 本文在系统梳理国内外研究文献的基础上,基于１９７８～２０１０年期间省际面板数据,采用面板向量自回归模型,实证考察了产业结构变迁对经济波动的动态影响。主要结论：产业结构合理化冲击表现出弱逆周期性,从长期来看,经济波动的“坏日子”正好是产业结构进行合理化调整的“好日子”,而产业结构的合理化对经济波动具有“熨平效应”;高级化冲击则呈强顺周期性,无论是短期还是长期均具有明显的正向效应,短期影响更为显著。
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| 关 键 词： | 产业结构合理化 产业结构高级化 经济波动 动态影响 面板ＶＡＲ模型 |
Study on the Dynamic Effects of Industrial Structure on Economic Fluctuation |
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| Peng Chong
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Li Chunfeng
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Li Yushuang.Study on the Dynamic Effects of Industrial Structure on Economic Fluctuation[J].Industrial Economics Research,2013(3):91-100. |
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| Authors: | Peng Chong Li Chunfeng Li Yushuang |
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| Institution: | 1.College of Economics and Trade,Hunan University,Changsha 410079,China; 2.Business School,Jiaxing University,Jiaxing 314001,China) |
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| Abstract: | This article systematically reviews domestic and foreign research literatures,on the basis of this,using the 1978～2010 panel data of China’s provinces,this paper establishes a panel VAR model to test the dynamic effects of the industrial structure on the fluctuation of output.The results show that: the rationalization shock of industrial structure has an Counter-Cyclical economic fluctuation,in the long run,the "bad days" is just the "good days" of the rationalization of the industrial structure,and the rationalization of industrial structure on economic fluctuation has "ironing effect";the optimization shock of industrial structure is Pro-Cyclical,it is a significant positive effect,no whether in short-term or in long-term. |
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| Keywords: | the rationalization of industrial structure the optimization shock of industrial structure economic fluctuations dynamic effects Panel VAR Model |
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