汇率、工资和经济增长对我国就业的影响:1994—2010——基于制造业动态面板数据的实证检验

本文采用1994～2003年和2004～2010年制造业面板数据,运用GMM估计方法,分别考察汇率、工资和经济增长对中国全部制造业、不同外向度和不同劳动密集度制造业部门均衡就业的影响。结果显示,不管是整体还是分类回归,2004年前,制造业部门就业都与实际有效汇率、工资负相关,与经济增长、滞后一期就业正相关,但2004后就业与实际有效汇率负相关,与经济增长、滞后一期就业正相关。从整体上看,2004年前经济增长对制造业部门就业影响不明显,2004年后则有微弱的拉动作用,并主要作用于外向度低的部门。在分类检验中,2004年前的就业实际有效汇率弹性大于2004年后,且外向度高的企业就业受汇率升值的不利影响更大。此外,2004年前工资也对制造业部门就业造成较大冲击。

Effects of Exchange Rate, Wages and Economic Growth on Employment Empirical Study on Manufacturing Dynamic Panel Data of China from 1994 to 2010

The article uses the period 1994—2003 and 2004—2010 manufacturing panel data to make empirical study respectively by GMM estimation to investigate the effects of exchange rate,wages and output on the balanced employment in China’s entirely manufacturing,different outward orientation and different labor-intensive orientation manufacturing sector.Both the overall and classified regression show that manufacturing employment is negatively related to wage and real effective exchange rate,and positively related to output and the lag 1 phase employment before 2004,but,after 2004,the employment is negatively correlated with real effective exchange rate,and positively correlated with output and the lag 1 phase employment.Overall,before 2004 the impact of output on employment is not of significance,but a weakly stimulating effect after 2004 and a major role in the low outward orientation department.In the classified test,the real effective exchange rate flexibility of employment is lager than after 2004,and high extroversion enterprises have the greater adverse impact of exchange rate appreciation.In addition,before 2004,the wages would impinge the manufacturing sector employment.