中国城乡劳动力流动影响因素研究——理论模型与实证分析

结合中国实际情况,对哈里斯-托达罗模型的基本假设进行修定,从农民追求预期净收益现值最大化出发,运用动态宏观经济学的递归方法,推导出均衡条件下中国城乡劳动力流动影响因素的理论模型,并采用动态面板计量方法实证检验各影响因素对城乡劳动力流动的作用方向和程度。研究发现:城乡劳动力流动率的滞后值、城乡实际收入差距、非农产值比和农业比较劳动生产率对城乡劳动力流动有正的影响,但城乡实际收入差距的影响系数值偏小;城镇失业率、城乡消费支出比和农村工业化对城乡劳动力流动有负的影响;制度变迁和全社会固定资产投资率对城乡劳动力流动也有一定程度但不显著的正影响。为了解决农民工就业问题,应加强城乡联动共同发展。

Study on the Influencing Factors of Chinese Urban-Rural Labor Mobility——Theoretical Model and Empirical Analysis

Combining with the actual situation in China,from farmers maximizing the present value of expected net revenue,the paper fixes the basic assumptions on Harris-Todaro model to derive the theoretical model of influencing factors of Chinese urban-rural labor mobility under equilibrium conditions by using the recursive method of dynamic macroeconomics,and conducts the empirical study on the influence direction and degree of the influencing factors on urban-rural labor mobility by using the Dynamic Panel Data econometrics method,we find that:the lag value of urban-rural labor mobility rate,urban-rural actual income gap,nonagricultural output ratio and agricultural comparative labor productivity has a positive impact on urban-rural labor mobility,but the influence coefficient of urban-rural income gap is small;urban unemployment rate,urban-rural consumption expenditure ratio and rural industrialization has a negative impact on urban-rural labor mobility;To some extent but not significantly,institutional change and whole social fixed assets investment rate has positive impact on urban-rural labor mobility.Finally,the empirical results are still explained.