经济增长与能源消费关系的多重结构突变模型研究

在假设保持资本和劳动不变的情况下，运用Ｂａｉ和Ｐｅｒｒｏｎ（２００３）内生多重结构突变方法研究了中国经济增长与能源消费关系。研究结果表明，１９５２—２０１０年中国经济增长与能源消费的关系可以分为九个时期，能源消费对经济增长的影响在１９５２—１９８８年期间（前六个时期）大致呈“Ｎ”形，在１９８９—２０１０期间（后三个时期）大致呈４５度的“Ｓ”形。能源消费对经济增长的贡献是稳步上升的，为了保证中国经济可持续增长，一方面要保持能源的充分供给，另一方面要对能源消费价格进行改革，以充分发挥市场机制在能源价格形成中的基础性作用，合理配置资源。

An Analysis of Multiple Structural Change Model Based on Relationship between Economic Growth and Energy Consumption

Leaving the capital and labor unchanged,the paper adopts endogenous multiple structural change proposed by Bai and Perron(2003) to study the relationship between economic growth and energy consumption from 1952 to 2010.The results show that their relationship can be divided into nine periods.The impact of energy consumption on economic growth from 1952 to 1988(in the first six periods) roughly shows "N" shape while from 1989 to 2010(in the latter three periods) it roughly shows 45 degrees of "S" shape.Energy consumption promotes economic growth steadily.In order to exert basic function of market mechanism in the reformation of energy price,allocate resources reasonably and guarantee the sustainable economic growth in China,sufficient energy supply and the reformation of energy consumption price are essential.