经济环境、政府补贴与企业发展——基于生存分析方法的实证研究

通过我国工业企业统计数据分析宏观经济的两个方面，提出宏观经济发展速度和宏观经济政策稳定性在政府补贴政策对企业生存发展影响的调节作用方面的理论假设，并利用生存分析方法对理论假设进行实证检验。理论和实证研究表明，政府补贴更愿意在宏观经济增长速度低的时期实施，但在宏观经济高速增长时期，政府补贴对企业生存概率的提升作用要明显高于低速增长时期。宏观经济政策不稳定性企业获得政府补贴的概率较大，并且在宏观经济政策不稳定时期加大企业的补贴力度相比政策稳定期能够更明显地促进企业的生存发展。

Economic Environment,Government Subsidies and Enterprise Development-an Empirical Study Based on Survival Analysis

The article obtains two aspects of macroeconomic environment through the statistical data analysis of China's industrial enterprises, the theoretical hypothesis that the macro-economic development speed and the macro-economic policy stability influence the government subsidy policy on the enterprise survival and development is obtained, Then we use the survival analysis method to test the theoretical hypothesis. Theoretical and empirical studies show that government subsidies are more willing to be implemented in the period of low macroeconomic growth, but in the period of high macroeconomic growth, the promotion effect of government subsidies on the survival probability of enterprises is significantly higher than that in the period of low macroeconomic growth. Enterprises with unstable macroeconomic policies are more likely to receive government subsidies, In addition, in the period of macroeconomic policy instability, increasing the subsidy intensity of enterprises can more obviously promote the survival and development of enterprises than in the period of policy stability.