财政支出与经济增长：基于ＶＡＲ模型的跨国研究

基于多元时间序列向量自回归（ＶＡＲ）模型，通过对具有相似经济增长率的巴西、中国和印度三个发展中国家的实际人均ＧＤＰ增长率、财政支出和私人支出的时间序列数据的考察表明，具有相似经济增长模式的国家，其财政支出与经济增长的关系也并非一致。最重要的是，没有稳定的证据表明财政支出可以促进人均产出的增加，也不表明两变量间存在稳定的负相关关系。

Fiscal Spending and Economic Growth:A Transnational VAR Study

On the basis of multivariate time-series VAR,this paper makes an investigation of time-series data of growth rate of real GDP per capita,fiscal spending and private spending of three developing countries with similar economic growth rate: Brazil,China and India.It is found that for countries with similar economic growth model,the relationship between fiscal spending and economic growth is inconsistent.Most importantly,no stable evidence suggests that fiscal spending can promote the growth in GDP per capita ...