贸易自由化、人口流动与地区犯罪率

文章探讨了中国贸易自由化进程对犯罪活动的影响及其发生作用的机制。研究基于中国产品层面的关税数据，构建差异性的地区贸易保护指标，衡量各地区贸易自由化程度，进而利用2000-2011年省级面板数据，运用固定效应模型与工具变量法实证检验贸易自由化与犯罪率之间的关系及潜在人口流动的影响机制。结果表明：中国加入WTO后，贸易自由化显著推升了犯罪率水平，且贸易自由化程度越深入的省份，犯罪率提升程度越高，地区效应显著；贸易自由化主要通过增加外来人口流入等渠道推升了犯罪活动。因而，中国在进一步对外开放过程中，要注重处理好贸易自由化带来的负面效应和由此产生的额外社会成本，更加注重流动人口权益的保障，消除劳动力市场扭曲，最小化贸易自由化可能带来的不利影响。

Trade Liberalization,Population Migration and Regional Crime Rate

This paper discusses the effects of trade liberalization on criminal activities and the mechanism of those effects.Based on Chinese product-level tariff data,this paper constructs trade protection index to measures provincial trade liberalization;then empirically test the relationship between trade liberalization and crime rate,as well as potential mechanism of trade liberalization on crime rate,using Chinese provincial panel data from 2000-2011 with fixed effect model and instrumental variable method.The results show that:Since China's entry into WTO,trade liberalization significantly increases Chinese crime rate;regions with high trade liberalization level are with high crime rate.Trade liberalization increases criminal activities through high urbanization and inflow of internal population migration.Therefore, in the process of further openness of China,the adverse effects and additional social cost of trade liberalization should be emphasized;pay more attention to improve the quality of urbanization,eliminate the distortion of labor market and minimize the adverse effects of trade liberalization.