政治风险、文化距离和双边关系对中国对外直接投资的影响——基于“一带一路”沿线主要国家的研究

随着“一带一路”战略的实施，中国对外直接投资（OFDI）规模将会持续扩大，也面临各种各样的风险。根据2003-2014年中国对“一带一路”沿线主要43个国家直接投资的面板数据，运用面板矫正误差（PCSE）方法估计，重点研究东道国政治风险、文化距离和双边关系对我国对外直接投资的影响，并将样本分为“新海上丝绸之路”和“丝绸之路经济带”，比较两条路线上的异同。研究发现：双边政治关系与我国OFDI显著正相关；中国对“一带一路”的OFDI一般集中于政治风险高、文化距离近、自然资源丰富的国家，原因在于东道国丰富的自然资源和与东道国良好的双边关系降低了投资风险；地理距离对中国投资有负影响，中国对东道国出口对OFDI有促进作用。此外，政治风险、文化距离和地理距离对OFDI的影响在“一带一路”两条路线上表现出明显差异。

The Impact of Political Risk,Culture Distance and Bilateral Relationship on China's OFDI-a study of the main countries along “YiDaiYiLu”

With the implementation of the strategy of "YiDaiYiLu", the scale of China's OFDI will make a new step. Based on the 2003-2014 China's panel data of the main 33 countries along "YiDaiYiLu" and using the panel correction error (PCSE) to estimate, this paper focuses on the influence of the host country political risk, cultural distance and the bilateral relations on China's OFDI and divides the samples into "Marine silk road" and "silk road economic belt" to compare their similarities and differences. Main conclusions are as follows. The bilateral political relations has a significant positive correlation with China's OFDI. The Chinese OFDI is offered to countries with higher political risk, rich natural resources and close cultural distance because rich natural resources and good bilateral relationship will lower the investment risk. Geographic distance has a negative influence on the OFDI. Meanwhile, political risk, cultural distance and geographic distance have different influence on "Marine silk road" and "silk road economic belt".