城市化与产业结构优化——基于湖南省的动态计量分析

在城市化与产业结构综合指标体系的基础上,通过建立VAR模型对城市化综合水平与产业结构相关指数的关系进行动态计量分析,结果表明：城市化综合水平对产业结构综合指数、产值结构综合指数、就业结构综合指数存在单向的因果关系;城市化与产值结构综合指数存在唯一的长期均衡关系,且对产值结构的影响短期内为正、长期为负。城市化综合水平对产业结构综合指数与就业结构综合指数无论从短期还是长期来看均具有持久的正向效应,并且其冲击长期内能解释产业结构预测误差的70%左右。城市化是促使湖南省产业结构由低级向高级演进的重要因素,整体上有利于产业结构优化升级。

Urbanization and Optimization of the Industrial Structure：Dynamic Econometric Analysis Based on Hunan Province

Based on the index system of urbanization and industrial structure,a dynamic econometric analysis is made on the comprehensive index of urbanization level and industrial structure based on VAR mode.The results reveal that the comprehensive level of urbanization is the Granger cause of the comprehensive index of industrial structure,output structure and employment structure,but the contrary is not established.There are long-term relationships between comprehensive index of urbanization and output structure,and the short-term effect of the comprehensive level of urbanization on the output structure is positive though the long-term impact is negative.The urbanization plays a lasting positive role on the comprehensive index of industrial structure and employment structure either in a short term or long term,and its impact can explain approximately seventy percent of the prediction error of the industrial structure.On the whole,it can be seen that urbanization plays an important role in upgrading the industrial structure of Hunan province and optimizing industrial structure,but the effects of industrial structure optimization on the urbanization are very weak.