| 基于灰色系统理论的市场潜力预测模型--以我国旅游电子商务市场为例 |
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| 引用本文： | 康传德,庄小丽,魏龙吉.基于灰色系统理论的市场潜力预测模型--以我国旅游电子商务市场为例[J].石家庄经济学院学报,2006,29(2):162-165. |
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| 作者姓名： | 康传德 庄小丽 魏龙吉 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 中国地质大学(武汉)管理学院,湖北,武汉,430074
2. 青岛黄海职业学院,山东,青岛,266427 |
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| 基金项目： | 河北省教育科学规划项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 基于灰色系统理论,以2001年以来我国旅游电子商务市场潜力为依据,初步构建了我国旅游电子商务市场潜力的灰色GM （1,1）预测模型;并对预测模型的精度进行了检验;分析探讨了提高预测精度的方法.然后据此模型对我国旅游电子商务市场潜力进行了预测.据初步估算2009年我国旅游电子商务市场潜力将超过100亿元.
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| 关 键 词： | 旅游电子商务 市场潜力预测 灰色系统 |
| 文章编号： | 1007-6875(2006)02-0162-04 |
| 收稿时间： | 2006-01-16 |
| 修稿时间： | 2006年1月16日 |
A Grey Theory-based Models for Forecasting Market Scale--a case study of the electronic market in the tourism industry |
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| KANG Chuan-de,ZHUANG Xiao-li,WEI Long-ji.A Grey Theory-based Models for Forecasting Market Scale--a case study of the electronic market in the tourism industry[J].Journal of Shijiazhuang University of Economics,2006,29(2):162-165. |
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| Authors: | KANG Chuan-de ZHUANG Xiao-li WEI Long-ji |
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| Institution: | 1. China University of Geosciences, Wuhan, Hubei 430074; 2. Qingdao Huanhai Vocational College, Qingdao, Shandong 266427 |
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| Abstract: | It is useful to exactly forecast the electronic commence market scale in the tourism Industry of China for both government management and enterprise investment decisions.Linear regression models are often used in market investigations.But its precision is worth discussion.The research suggests that compared with the Grey Model of GM(1,1) the linear regression model has lower precision.So the Grey Model is much more suitable for forecasting the electronic market scale in the tourism Industry of China.The research is beneficial to tourism forecast.It is estimated that by the year of 2009,the electronic market scale in tourism industry in China will be up to more than 10 billion Chinese yuan. |
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| Keywords: | e-business in tourism Industry market scale forecasting grey system |
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