经济密度、人口规模与环境污染——基于城市面板数据的实证分析

选取2005-2016年285个地级及以上城市数据,利用静态和动态短面板模型分析经济密度和人口规模对环境污染的影响,分析表明:经济密度与环境污染之间存在“倒U型”关系,人口规模扩大会抑制污染物排放;不同等级城市经济密度、不同规模城市人口对环境污染的影响方向一致,但影响程度有所差异;前期污染排放对当期具有正向影响,环境污染物排放存在路径依赖;经济发展水平、工业产值占比和对外开放也是影响污染物排放的重要因素,但各指标对三类污染物排放的影响方向和影响程度存在差异。据此认为,在综合考虑城市具体空间区位条件下,人口适度集聚,提高城市经济密度,优化产业结构以及加强环境监管是环境治理的重要方向。

Economic Density,Population Size and Environmental Pollution—Empirical Analysis Based on Urban Panel Data

Using the static and dynamic short panel models to analyze the impact of economic density and population size on environmental pollution,and the data were collected from 285 cities of prefecture level and above from 2005 to 2016.Empirical analysis shows that:there is an inverted U-shaped relationship between economic density and environmental pollution,and the expansion of population size will inhibit the emission of pollutants;the impacts of economic density and population on environmental pollution in cities of different grades and sizes are in the same direction,but the degree of impact is different;it has a positive impact on current environmental pollution,and there are path dependence on environmental pollutant discharge;economic development level,industrial output value and opening to the outside are also important factors affecting environmental pollutant discharge,but,there are differences in the direction and extent of the impact of each index on the emission of three types of pollutants.Based on this,it is considered that under the conditions of comprehensive consideration of the specific spatial location of the city,moderate population agglomeration,increasing urban economic density,optimizing industrial structure and strengthening environmental supervision are important directions for environmental governance.