中国省区能源强度的影响因素及其空间溢出性

为揭示中国能源强度的演变趋势及空间分布特征,分析主要影响因素变化对能源强度的冲击及识别主要影响因素的空间溢出效应,论文使用2000-2016年中国30个省区的能源强度及相关数据,利用空间杜宾模型探究能源强度的影响因素及其空间溢出效应。结果表明:中国省区能源强度具有显著空间相关性,能源强度水平相似省区倾向集聚分布;城市化水平、能源消费结构和能源禀赋对省区能源强度有显著正向影响,而经济发展水平和技术进步的影响则为负向;从溢出效应来看,东部省区的城市化水平、西部省区的能源消费结构以及东、中、西部地区的能源禀赋均产生了正向的空间溢出效应,而东西部地区的技术进步则产生了负向的空间溢出效应,东部、中部和西部地区固定资产投资的空间溢出效应方向相反。

The Influencing Factors of Energy Intensity in China′s Provinces and Its Spatial Spillover

In order to reveal the evolution trend and spatial distribution characteristics of China′s energy intensity,analyze the shock of major influencing factors on energy intensity and identify the spatial spillover effects of major influencing factors,based on the energy intensity and related data of China′s 30 provinces from 2000 to 2016,using Spatial Durbin Model,the paper explores the influencing factors of energy intensity and its spatial spillover effects.The results indicate that an obvious spatial correlation can be found in China′s provincial energy intensity,the regions of similar level of the energy intensity tend to be geographically adjacent to each other;the urbanization level,energy consumption structure and energy resources have a significant positive impact on the provincial energy intensity,while the impact of economic development level and technology advances is negative impact;the urbanization level of the eastern provinces,the energy consumption structure of the western provinces,and the energy resources of the eastern,central and western provinces all have positive spatial spillover effects,while the technology advances in the eastern and western provinces has produced a negative spatial spillover effect,and the spatial spillover effects of fixed investments in the eastern,middle and west provinces are opposite.