安徽省税种结构变动的经济增长效应

根据安徽省1994年—2012年的样本数据,运用Cobb-Douglas生产函数理论模型,对税种结构变动与经济增长关系进行实证分析。结果表明:增值税占总税收比重的增加会降低人均生产总值,营业税、企业所得税、个人所得税、农业各税占总税收比重的增加会提高人均生产总值,资源税的经济效应不显著。因此,应该进一步优化现行税制结构:有序推进"营改增",完善中央与地方的税收分享体制;提高所得税的比重,增强其收入再分配作用;加快推进资源税改革,促进经济可持续发展;适度调节农业各税,培育农村大市场。

The Effect of Tax Structure Change on Economic Growth of Anhui Province

This paper, using Cobb-Douglas production function, makes an empirical analysis of the relationship between tax structure change and economic growth based on the data of Anhui province from 1994 to 2012 . The results show that the growth of the share of value-added tax will reduce output per capita;the growth of the share of business tax, corporate income tax, individual income tax and agricultural tax will raise the output per capita;the economic effects of resource tax are not significant. Therefore, Anhui needs to further improve tax system, change business tax to value-added tax orderly, improve the sharing system of tax income between central government and local government, increase the proportion of income tax and strengthen its effect of income redistribution, accelerate the reform of resource tax, and adjust agricultural tax appropriately and cultivate rural market.