“一带一路”沿线国家贸易开放与劳动收入份额

基于1990~2014年的跨国数据,实证研究贸易开放对"一带一路"沿线国家劳动收入份额的影响。分析发现,"一带一路"沿线国家的劳动收入份额均值下降了5%以上。采用固定效应模型和工具变量法的实证分析表明,整体上贸易开放抑制了"一带一路"沿线国家的劳动收入份额。进一步将"一带一路"沿线国家按照经济发展水平、要素禀赋、制度环境分组研究发现,贸易开放对高经济发展水平国家、资本密集型国家、资源密集型国家、制度环境良好国家的劳动收入份额具有显著负影响,但是对于低经济发展水平国家、劳动密集型国家、制度环境不佳国家的劳动收入份额具有显著正效应。而向中国贸易开放能够提高"一带一路"沿线国家的劳动收入份额,特别是对低经济发展水平国家的积极影响较强。上述实证结果具有稳健性。在此基础上提出了相应的政策建议。

Trade Openness and Labor Shares of the Countries along “the Belt and Road”

Based on the cross-national data from 1990 to 2014,the paper empirically studies the influence of trade openness on labor share of the countries along "the Belt and Road",and we find that the mean value of labor share drops by 5% in the sample period.The empirical results by fixed effects model and instrumental variables method show that trade openness inhibits the labor share of the countries along"the Belt and Road". Further analysis of "the Belt and Road"countries grouped by levels of economic development,factor endowment and institutional environment indicates that,trade openness has significantly negative impact on the labor share of high-level development countries,capital-intensive countries,resource-abundant countries,and institution-friendly countries;however,it has significantly positive impact on that of low-level development countries,labour-intensive countries,and the countries with poor institutional environment. It is proved that trade openness towards China can improve the labor share of the countries along "the Belt and Road",especially those with low-level economic development,and the results show the robustness. Based on the results above,this paper provides the corresponding policy advice.