中美两国对韩国农产品出口增长因素研究

韩国是中、美两国农产品重要出口市场。本文基于2000-2011年中美两国对韩国农产品贸易的有关数据,运用恒定市场份额模型分解两国对韩国农产品出口增长因素。结果显示：规模效应始终是中美两国农产品对韩国出口增长的主要因素,中国规模效应较美国更加突出;中国农产品出口竞争力下降导致竞争效应贡献度不断降低,严重制约中国对韩国农产品出口的扩大,而美国农产品竞争优势的提高促进了对韩国出口增长。美韩FTA协定中韩国农产品市场的进一步开放,必然会对中国农产品出口韩国构成威胁。最后,提出了扩大两国农产品贸易规模、促进农产品贸易自由化的建议。

Study on Agricultural Export Growth from China ＆ US to South Korea

South Korea is a major export market of agricultural products of China and the US Based on 2000-2011 trade data. This paper decomposes the growth factors of agricultural export to South Korea from China and the US by using Constant Market Share model. The results show that scale effect is always a major factor, and the scale effect of Chinese export to South Korea is more prominent than that of the United States; the declining export competiveness of China＇s agricultural products severely restricts China＇s expansion of agricultural exports to South Korea, while the improvement of the competitive advantage of American agricultural products has promoted its export to South Korea; the further opening of agricultural market of South Korea to US under the US-South Korea FTA will definitely pose threats to China＇s agricultural export products to South Korea. Finally, this paper suggests expanding the scale of trade in agricultural products and promoting agricultural trade liberalization between China and South Korea.