中国主要旅游城市入境旅游客流季节性研究

我国入境旅游客流具有明显的季节性特征,充分理解入境旅游客流季节性形成机制,客观评价目的地季节性特征,是目的地之间取得有效合作的前提条件。选取我国20个主要旅游城市作为研究对象,采用基尼系数分析了入境旅游客流季节性分布的不均匀性,研究结果发现,我国东部区域旅游城市入境旅游客流分布相对比较均匀,西部城市入境旅游客流分布相对比较集中。运用多维标度法分析了我国20个主要旅游城市入境旅游客流和入境台湾游客季节性需求分布的相似性,研究结果发现,地域和经济相近的旅游城市的季节性需求分布具有较大相似性。最后,从产品、价格、联合营销等方面提出了目的地应对季节性的一些对策。

A Study on the Seasonality of the Inbound Tourist Flow in China＇s Major Tourism Cities

Seasonality is the obvious characteristics of inbound tourism in China.It＇s a prerequisite of an effective cooperation between destinations that we have a deep understanding of the seasonal mechanism and objective assessments of destinations＇ seasonal profile.This paper selects 20 major tourism cities as the research object.It adopts the Gini coefficient to analyze the amplitude of seasonality for the inbound tourism.The results provide the hints that the eastern tourism cities are characterized by a uniform distribution of international arrivals,while the distribution of tourist flows of western tourism cities are relatively concentrated.The next analysis assesses how similar the 20 major tourism cities＇ seasonal patterns are.It investigates the similarity structure of the international tourism flow and the Taiwan tourists＇ distribution for the 20 destinations using the multi-dimensional scaling（MDS） method.The outcome shows a concentration of cities in the center right area of the diagrams.The outcome shows the similarities are associated with the cities＇ geographical and economic status.Finally,the article provides some strategies,including pricing strategies,diversifying the attraction and destination collaborative marketing,to ameliorate the effects of seasonality.