托达罗人口流动模型的改进——基于风险升水的视角

农村劳动力的迁移决策是一个理性的经济决策行为,迁移者在做出迁移决策时不仅仅要考虑预期的城乡收入差异,理性的迁移者还会考虑到不确定性带来的效用损失,文章用一个风险升水值来度量这种效用损失,并认为应该从托达罗模型的预期收入差异中剔除这个损失额度。因而,实际预期的城乡收入差异会比托达罗模型所表述的更小,一些风险规避的迁移者可能就会因此退出迁移。

Reconstruction of Todaro Rural Urban Migration Model——In the View of Risk Premium

Rural labor force's migration to urban area is a rational economic decision-making behavior,those who want to migrate to urban areas not only take the consideration of the anticipated income difference between city and countryside,but also care that the uncertainty would lead to their effectiveness loss.The paper uses a risk premium to measure this kind of effectiveness loss,the real anticipated city and countryside income difference will be smaller than the indicated of Todaro Rural-Urban Migration Model,some risk averse rural labor forces will fail to migrate to cities.