汇率制度:变迁轨迹与经济绩效

通过对汇率制度变迁下实际汇率水平、内外部均衡目标的实证研究发现:钉住一揽子货币制度能较好的实现内部均衡目标,经济绩效显著;相对浮动汇率制度在内部均衡目标实现方面的经济绩效不显著,却能有效的促进外部均衡目标的实现;固定汇率制度能促进内部均衡目标的实现,国内经济绩效显著,却不能有效促进外部均衡目标的实现。我国汇率制度的变迁揭示,汇率变化要与国内经济结构和市场能力相适应。当前人民币升值虽然是趋势,但要循序渐进缓步推进,给予国内经济结构和出口行业留有转型时间和空间。我国均衡汇率的逐步形成,需要实现国内经济绩效和国际经济绩效的协调同步,才能实现经济可持续发展。

Exchange Rate Regimes: Changing Track and Economic Performance

Through the empirical study for real exchange rate and the goal of internal and external equilibrium,a conclusion can be drawn that,the switch a basket of currencies regimes achieve better internal equilibrium and bring significant economic performance;Relative floating exchange rate regime's achieving the goal of internal equilibrium is not significant,but can efficiently achieve the goal of external equilibrium.The fixed exchange rate regimes can achieve the goal of internal equilibrium,and the economic performance is significant but failing to effectively achieve the goal of external equilibrium.Variance in Chinese exchange rate regime have revealed that the changes in the exchange rate should suit the domestic economic structure as well as the ability to adapt to market.Although RMB is on a current trend of appreciation,but which must be a gradual slow progress,in order to offer the export industries and the domestic economic structure time and space for transformation.The gradual taking shape of my equilibrium exchange rate must company with the coordination of domestic economic performance and international economic performance so as to achieve sustainable economic development.