保险业发展与宏观经济运行相互关系的实证研究

保险业发展和宏观经济运行之间存在动态关系。文章通过建立VAR模型对我国保费收入和消费、投资、净出口之间的相互关系进行实证研究,对内生变量进行格兰杰因果关系检验、脉冲响应函数分析和方差分解,考察了4个内生变量的相互关系和相互影响程度。研究结果表明:我国宏观经济运行对保险业发展没有显著影响;保险业发展对投资、消费和净出口的影响作用在短期、中期和长期是不一致的;保费收入的方差贡献率始终大于投资、消费和净出口的方差贡献率。

Empirical Research on the Interactions Between Insurance Industry and Macro Economy

This paper aimed at studying the dynamic interactions between insurance industry and macro economy by establishing the VAR model.By using the Granger Causation Test,Impulse Response Function and Variance Decomposition,the authors conducted a comprehensive study on the interactions among the four variables,i.e.insurance premiums,investment,consumption and export.At the end of the paper,conclusions are shown as nonsignificant impact on the insurance industry from macro-economy,inconformity of short-term,mediu...