二氧化碳排放与经济增长关系探究

伴随着经济发展，二氧化碳排放量逐年上升，并由此引发一系列环境问题。以陕西省为例，对其1978—2011年的二氧化碳排放量和经济增长间的关系进行了研究。结果表明，陕西省二氧化碳排放量和经济增长之间存在长期稳定关系。向量误差修正估计表明，当二氧化碳排放量与经济增长偏离长期均衡关系时，将以19．22％的调整力度拉回均衡状态。Granger因果检验表明，只存在由经济增长到二氧化碳排放量的单向Granger原因，并且脉冲响应分析表明经济增长对二氧化碳排放量的影响是长期的。

Research on Relationship between CO2 Emissions and Economic Growth

Along with the economic growth, the emissions of carbon dioxide are growing up, and thus lead to lots of environmental problems. This paper has researched the relationship between carbon dioxide （CO2） emissions and economic growth in Shanxi province from 1978 to 2011. The result shows that CO2 emissions and economic growth in Shanxi province has cointegration relationship. The VECM estimated results show that, when the long - run equilibrium relationship between CO2 emissions and economic growth is deviated, it wiU be back to a balanced state by 19.22% readjustments. Granger causality test shows that there only exist an unidirectional Granger cause from economic growth to CO2 emissions, and the impulse response analysis reveals that economic growth has a long- term impact on CO2 emissions.