张家界入境旅游市场风险预警研究

风险预警是政府和企业风险管理领域研究的热点和难点，也是市场管理研究的新方向。文章基于张家界历年入境游客接待量官方数据，分析入境旅游市场经营风险；又采用因子分析和聚类分析法，对2011-2012年18个人境旅游市场进行风险综合预警分析。结果显示：韩国市场风险最小，可发布蓝色预警；美国和菲律宾市场风险最大，应发布红色预警。张家界当前应重点预警美国和菲律宾等市场风险，并注意韩国等后续年份市场风险。

A Study on the Early Risk Warning of Zhangjiajie Inbound Tourism Market

Early risk warning is a hot and difficult research topic in the field of government and enterprise risk management and the new direction of market research. Based on the official reception data of tourists to Zhangjiajie, the paper analyzes the management risk of the inbound tourism market. By adopting the method of factor analysis and cluster analysis, it analyzes the general early risk warning of 18 inbound tourism markets from 2011 to 2012. The resuhs show that： the risk in Korean market is the smallest and a blue warning may be issued, while risks in the United States and the Philippines market are the highest, so they shall issue a red warning. At present Zhangjiajie shall be alerted by the risks coming from the markets of the United States and the Philippines and watch out for the risks in the Korean market in subsequent years.