基于Verhulst发展方程的人口系统预测和分析

针对新疆人口现状,采用Verhulst人口发展方程对新疆人口总量、老年人口数、老龄化指数、劳动力指数、抚养指数进行了预测。从预测结果可以看出:新疆人口在2007年至2050年内还将继续增长,将在2030年左右达到3 000万人,老龄化指数上升到0.566 3～0.586 0,老年人口比例上升到10.00%～10.55%。按国际化标准,新疆将在2030年进入老龄化社会,此后人口总量和老龄化指数将持续增长。抚养指数继续上升,到2045年,老年抚养指数将超过少儿抚养指数。社会负担主要来源于人口老龄化。该结果符合目前人口发展趋势,可以为相关人口政策的制定给予有力的数据支持。

Forecast and Analysis of Population System Based Verhulst Developmental Equation

Aiming at the current situation of Xinjiang’s population,the Verhulst’s developing equation was adopted to estimate the total amount of Xinjiang’s population,the elderly population,and the index of aging,labor force index and dependency index.From the forecasting results we can see that Xinjiang’s population will continue to grow from the year 2007 to 2050,in 2030 the population will amount to 30 million,the index of aging will rise to 0.566 3~0.586 0 respectively.The proportions of the elderly population will rise to 10.00%~10.55%.According to the international standards,in 2030,Xinjiang will enter the aging society,then the total population and the index of aging continue to grow as well as the index of dependency index.It is not until in 2045 that the index of the older will exceed that of the children.The social burden mostly comes from the aging population.The results accord with the current demographic trends,and can offer convincing data support for making correlative population policy.