2012年度宏观经济与资产配置展望

本文主要分析了发达经济体2012年宏观经济形势,对中国宏观经济形势及调控政策进行了展望,在此基础上提出:目前宏观经济处于小衰退周期,在大类资产配置上,应以债券和货币为主,股票资产保持低配;在行业配置上,超配金融、非周期消费、公用事业等行业,低配基础工业、资源、信息技术、工业、周期消费等行业。

An Outlook on Macroeconomic and Asset Allocation of 2012

This paper analyzes the macroeconomic performance of the developed economies in 2012,and looks forward into China’s macroeconomic outlook and macro-control policies.On this basis,it argues that the current macro-economy is in a slight recession cycle and the asset allocation in terms of categories should be keeping more bonds and currencies and less stocks;the asset allocation by industries should be investing more money into finance,non-cycle consumption industry public utility and less into infrastructure industry,resource industry,IT industry,cycle consumption industry and so on.