京津冀城市群雾霾污染的时空特征与影响因素

基于京津冀城市群13个城市2014—2017年面板数据，分析京津冀城市群雾霾污染的时空特征，使用探索性空间数据分析方法检验雾霾污染的空间集聚特征，在此基础上使用空间计量模型对雾霾污染的社会经济因素进行实证分析。结果表明：(1)京津冀城市群年均PM25浓度呈下降趋势，PM25浓度呈现出“夏低冬高，春秋居中”的季节变化特征，PM25月浓度均值呈U型分布。(2)京津冀城市群南部城市PM25浓度高于北部城市，南部城市雾霾污染较为严重，雾霾污染范围呈缩小趋势。(3)京津冀城市群雾霾污染存在显著的空间正相关性，石家庄、邢台和衡水表现出显著的高-高集聚，承德、张家口和秦皇岛表现出显著的低-低集聚。(4)人口密度、能源消费、产业结构和绿化水平与雾霾污染正相关，经济增长、技术水平和对外开放水平与雾霾污染负相关。

Spatial temporal Characteristics of Haze Pollution and Its Influencing Factors in Beijing Tianjin Hebei Urban Agglomeration

Based on panel data of 13 cities in the Beijing Tianjin Hebei urban agglomeration from 2014 to 2017,the spatial temporal characteristics of haze pollution are analyzed.Using exploratory spatial data analysis method to test the spatial agglomeration characteristics of haze pollution, the spatial measurement model is used to analyze the socio economic factors of haze pollution. The resluts show that,firstly,the annual average PM2.5 concentration of Beijing Tianjin Hebei urban agglomeration shows a downward trend,the concentration of PM2.5 shows a significant seasonal change characteristics of low concentrations in summer,high concentrations in winter and intermediate concentrations in spring and autumn,and monthly average concentration of PM2.5 showes a U shaped curve;secondly, the concentration of PM2.5 in the southern city of Beijing Tianjin Hebei urban agglomeration is higher than that in the northern,haze pollution in southern cities is more serious,the scope of haze pollution shows a downward trend; thirdly, there is a significant spatial positive correlation between haze pollution in Beijing Tianjin Hebei urban agglomeration,Shijiazhuang,Xingtai and Hengshui show significant high high agglomeration,Chengde,Zhangjiakou and Qinhuangdao showed significant low low agglomeration; lastly, population density,energy consumption,industrial structure and greening level are positively correlated with haze pollution,economic growth,technological level and the level of opening to the outside world are negatively correlated with haze pollution.