控排放、调结构及促增长的相容路径与调谐机制

控排放、调结构及促增长虽存在矛盾，但相容有径。通过构建模型,可以提出促增长与控排放目标相容的必要条件，揭示碳强度、能耗强度、非化石能源比重及加权碳排放因子之间的内在联系，以及整体能耗强度降幅、三大产业结构演变及其能耗强度降幅之间的内在联系。在预设情景基础上，能够模拟推演36条相容低碳发展路径，其中包括6条可实现预设高经济增速目标相容路径、8条可实现预设中经济增速目标相容路径及12条可实现预设低经济增速目标相容路径，并且可以从中选出一条参考标杆路径。

Compatible Path and Tunning Mechanism of Emission Control, Structure Adjustment and Growth Promotion.

Contradictions exist among carbon emission control, structure adjustment and growth promotion, but there are compatible paths among them. By building mathematical models, the necessary conditions for the compatibility between growth promotion and emission control objectives are put forward, and the internal relationship among carbon intensity, energy consumption intensity, non fossil energy proportion and weighted carbon emission factors, as well as the internal relationship among overall energy consumption intensity reduction, evolution of the three major industrial structures and their energy consumption intensity reduction are revealed.Then, thirty six compatible low carbon development paths are deduced on the basis of preset scenarios, including six compatible paths to achieve the preset high economic growth target, eight compatible paths to achieve the preset middle economic growth target and 12 compatible paths to achieve the preset low economic growth target. Finally, a reference benchmark path is selected from them.