近地层臭氧对农作物产量影响的风险评估模型研究进展

近地层臭氧污染及其对农作物产量和粮食安全的负面效应已成为国内外广泛关注的焦点之一，建立适宜且更为精确的模型开展臭氧影响下的农作物产量损失评估对于粮食安全保障及臭氧污染控制具有重要的意义。综述了浓度响应、剂量响应和通量响应等统计模型的发展及其在产量损失评估中的应用，评述了其优缺点和通量响应模型的不确定性，同时，通过臭氧干沉降模型的研究进展及其与通量响应模型的优势比较，提出了基于观测和臭氧干沉降模型开展臭氧影响下的自然农田作物产量损失评估技术新的研究方向。

Risk Assessment Models for Surface Ozone Effects on Crop Yields: A Review

The rapid growth of fossil fuel-based economies during the last several decades has increased emission of ozone precursors, and thus raises atmospheric ozone concentrations. It is well documented that high ozone concentrations have negative effects on agricultural crops and induce significant yield losses in species such as wheat, rice and soybean. The negative effects of elevated ozone on the crops and food safety have drawn extensive attentions. It is important to establish more accurate models for evaluating the yields loss of crops under elevated surface ozone, and ensuring food security and controlling ozone pollution. In this review, concentration response, dose response and flux response models and their applications to biomass and yield loss were evaluated. Dry deposition models of surface ozone and flux model were compared. Based on the observation and ozone dry deposition model, a new research field was proposed to study techniques for evaluating crop yields loss under ozone stress in the natural farmland ecosystems.