矿产资源跨期开采的理论与实证研究——以四种重要矿产资源为例

矿产资源的跨期优化开采是可持续发展的重要内涵之一。以最优控制理论，结合社会福利函数，建立矿产资源耗竭时期内的最优开采动态模型，对我国四种矿产资源的最佳耗竭路径进行模拟分析。通过对比2008--2013年实际生产量与最优开采量，认为中国矿产资源供给尚未达到峰值，因此，与最优开采目标相悖。最后，探讨了影响矿产资源开采路径的不确定因素，并为现阶段的开采状态如何向最优开采路径回归提供了政策参考。

Theoretical and Empirical Research on the Mineral Resources Intertemporal Exploitation： Take four Main Kinds of Mineral Resources as Cases

The mineral resources intertemporal exploitation is the important content of the sustainable development. Based on the combination of optimal control theory and the social welfare function, we established the dynamic model of inter-temporal optimal exploitation during the mineral resources exhaustion period, and then conduct simulation analysis on the optimal production rate of four kinds of mineral resource in China. By comparing the actual output and the optimum exploitation quantity in recent six years, we think that the supply of mineral resources has not yet to peak in incompatible with the goal of the optimal exploitation in mineral resources. Finally, this article discusses some uncertain factors and provides policy reference for how to return to the optimal exploitation path at present mining stage.