自然人流动、信息传递效应与双边产业内贸易

本文在分析自然人流动对双边产业内贸易影响渠道的基础上,运用修正后的贸易引力模型,以中国为例,对自然人流动对双边产业内贸易的影响进行实证分析,结果显示：（1）自然人流动对于双边产业内贸易有着积极影响;（2）自然人流动对产业内贸易的影响主要作用于制成品;（3）母国与东道国的差异性越大,自然人流动对产业内贸易的影响越明显。据此,本文认为,消减自然人流动壁垒,促进自然人在全球范围内自由配置的意义不只在于服务贸易本身,其对于全面实现贸易自由化具有重要意义。

Movement of Natural Persons,Information Transmission effects and Bilateral Intra-Industry Trade

Based on the analysis of the channels through which the movement of natural persons will affect bilateral intra-industry trade,This paper uses the revised gravity model and make an empirical analysis by taking the China as an example.The result indicate：（1）China＇s movement of nature person yields significant positive impact on bilateral intra-industry.（2） this positive effect is stronger for manufactured products.（3）the effect of movement of nature person on intra-industry trade is bigger for trade between countries that present a more different level of development.Accordingly,this paper comes to the conclusion that decrease nature persons barriers and widely allocation the natural persons in the world is not only significance for service trade,but for overall trade liberalization.