财政科技投入对产业结构的影响——城镇化过程中劳动报酬占比的视角

我国各产业的劳动报酬占比具有非均衡的特征,政府的公共政策对于产业发展具有较大的影响。在创新驱动、实施科教兴国和人才强国战略的大背景下,观察财政科技投入对产业结构调整的影响具有重要意义。本文构建了一个在复杂现实背景下用于分析财政科技投入对劳动报酬和产业结构影响的CGE模型,模拟在人口城镇化过程中科技投入指标分步骤达到发达国家水平的情形下各产业劳动报酬、增加值、就业等经济指标的变化。结果显示:财政科技投入对劳动报酬占比尤其是第三产业的劳动报酬占比具有显著的正向促进作用,对于住宿和餐饮等需要升级的劳动密集型产业部门的影响尤其明显。同时发现,科技投入对于产业结构重心向第三产业转移具有明显的影响。

The Effect of Fiscal R＆D Input on Industrial Structure： From a Perspective of Labor Share in Urbanization Process

The labor share between industries in China is featured by imbalance, and govern- ment industrial policy has great effects on industrial development. Under the innovation-driven background with the strategy of invigorating China through science and education and talents, the study of the effect of fiscal R＆D input on the adjustment to industrial structure is of great signifi- cance. This paper constructs a CGE model to analyze the effects of fiscal R＆D input on labor share and industrial structure in the context of complex reality, and simulates the changes in economic indexes such as labor income, value added and employment in the case that the fis- cal input index step-by-step reaches the levels of developed countries in the urbanization process. It shows that fiscal R＆D input plays a positive role in the increase in labor share, especially in the tertiary industry, and has particularly obvious effects on labor-intensive in- dustrial sectors needing to upgrade like lodging and catering industries. It also indicates that fiscal R＆D input has clear effects on the transformation of the core of industrial structure to the tertiary industrv.