我国城镇居民消费的过度敏感性与不确定性、流动性约束——兼论房价增长与消费波动

我国居民收入、房地产价格、不确定性和流动性约束是影响城镇居民消费行为的主要因素。根据Panel Data形式的误差修正模型,比较我国东部、中部、西部地区消费行为所表现出的差异,说明长期来看房地产价格对消费具有正向的财富效应,生产性消费对居民的消费也起到一定的促进作用,但我国居民消费目前还受到较强的流动性约束。

Oversensitivity, Instability and Fluidity Restriction of Consumption by China's Urban Residents

The residents' income,the price of house estate,instability and fluidity restriction are the major factors that affect the urban residents' consumption in China.With the help of error correcting model by setting up Panel Data,this article compares the difference between the consumption behaviors in east,central and west China.It concludes that the price of house estate has for a long time impose positive wealth effect on consumption and productive consumption boosts the residents' consumption,though currently the residents' consumption is checked by prominent fluidity restriction.