公司财务危机预警系统研究

公司一旦发生财务危机，将会使投资者、金融机构蒙受较大损失，甚至会发生金融危机，由于财务危机不是在一朝一夕内形成，而具有较长的潜伏期，从而使财务危机预警成为可能。而成功地进行财务危机预警，可以为各方赢得时间，采取相应措施来控制风险，减少损失。笔者认为过度负债等六种情况是财务危机发生的深层次原因，在此基础上，提出构建财务危机预警系统的基本思路，主要包括监测范围与定性分析、预警指标选择、相应阀值和发生概率等四个子项目。

The research on the corporate financial crisis alarm system

Once the financial crises occur in a company,investors and financial institutions will sustain losses,it can even lead to monetary crisis.As the financial crises can not take shape overnight,and it has longer latent period,the financial crisis alarm system becomes necessary.The successful financial crisis alarm system can enable every party to gain sufficient time so that the corresponding measures can be taken to control the risk and reduce the losses.The authors think that the six situations such as over-debt are the fundamental reasons to cause the financial crisis.Furthermore,the authors put forward the basic idea of establishing the financial crisis alarm system,which mainly includes four sub-programs such as the monitoring scope and qualitative analysis,alarm indicator choice,corresponding threshold and occuring rate.