中国境外直接投资与对外贸易关系分析

理论上讲，境外直接投资与母国对外贸易之间存在众多联系渠道，对一些国家的实证分析也表明两者之间确实存在互动关系。然而，利用1982--2007年的相关数据，运用协整检验方法考察我国境外直接投资与进出口之间的关系，结果表明我国出口与境外直接投资间、进口与境外直接投资间均暂无长期的稳定关系，说明现阶段中国境外直接投资与对外贸易之间的长期均衡机制与驱动机制尚未形成。

An analysis of the relationship between China's outward FDI and foreign trade

Theoretically, there are many channels of foreign trade between outward direct investment and host country. The empirical researches on the relation between foreign direct investment （FDI） and international trade almost focus on the one between China＇s inward FDI and foreign trade. But little work has been done on the relationship between China＇s outward FDI and trade. By utilizing the cointegration test, we study the relationship of China＇s outward FDI with foreign trade by using the data of the period from 1982 to 2007. The main points of the paper are as follows： There is not a long-term equilibrium between exporter and outward FDI and neither is there between importer and outward FDI. The mutual driving mechanism has not yet formed between outward FDI and foreign trade.