中国城市化与碳排放关系实证分析

我国的城市化与碳排放量之间存在着高度的正相关性。在短期内,碳排放量与城市化水平之间的长期均衡关系对当前碳排放偏离均衡水平的调整力度较大;长期内,碳排放量的增加会伴随着短期城市化水平的提升;两者之间的相互作用还存在一定的＂时间延滞＂;城市化是碳排放量持续增长的Granger原因,但碳排放却不是城市化水平提升的Granger原因。因此,我国在推进城市化进程中必须注重环境保护,建设低碳城市。

Empirical Analysis of Dynamic Relationship between Urbanization and Carbon Emission Level in China

The urbanization and carbon emissions in China have greatly positive correlation.In the short term,the long-run equilibrium relationship of carbon emissions and urbanization level greatly influences deviation from the current equilibrium level of carbon emissions;in the long-term,the increase in carbon emissions is associated with short-term urbanization level upsurge.The interaction between urbanization and carbon emissions in China has a phenomenon of ＂time delay.＂ And urbanization is carbon emissions Granger causality,but carbon emissions are not urbanization Granger causality.Therefore,the push on the urbanization in China should concern about carbon emissions,focus on environmental protection,and build the Low-carbon City.