人口流动对区域创新能力的影响与空间效应——长江经济带三大城市群70城市的例证

人口流动改变了创新资源的空间配置，会对流入地和流出地的创新能力产生不同的影响，创新能力的空间相关性则导致人口流动对区域创新能力的影响具有空间效应。采用2006—2020年长江经济带三大城市群70个城市的面板数据，运用普通面板模型和空间杜宾模型分析表明：人口流入会促进本地创新，而人口流出会抑制本地创新；本地和邻近地区的人口净流入均有利于创新能力提升，人口流动影响区域创新能力具有显著的空间溢出效应；人口流动促进人口净流入地的创新能力并产生正向空间溢出效应，但会抑制人口净流出地的创新能力并产生负向空间溢出效应；劳动力人口流入正向影响创新能力并具有正向空间溢出效应，老年人口流入对创新能力的影响及空间效应不显著，但老年人口流入达到一定规模后有利于创新能力提升；人口流动对人口规模较大城市和距离中心城市较近城市创新能力的促进作用和空间溢出效应较强，不同的城市群也存在显著的异质性。因此，应采取差别化的人口流动引导政策，充分挖掘各年龄段流动人口的潜力，有效促进各地区的创新发展。

The Impact of Population Mobility on Regional Innovation Capacities and Its Spatial Effect: A Case Study of 70 Cities in Three Urban Agglomerations of the Yangtze River Economic Belt

At present, large-scale population flow has become a major trend in China. Using the huge potential contained in the floating population to promote the development of regional innovation capacity is an important means to achieve high-quality economic development in the Yangtze River Economic Belt. It is worth exploring whether there is an intrinsic relationship between population flow and regional innovation capacity. The Yangtze River Economic Belt includes the Yangtze River Delta city cluster, the city cluster in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River, and the Chengdu-Chongqing city cluster, with a geographic scope spanning the three major segments of east, center, and west of China. Studying the impact of population flow on regional innovation ability provides an important reference for enhancing the overall innovation strength of China. On the basis of theoretical analysis, this paper uses the panel data of 70 cities in the three major urban agglomerations of the Yangtze River Economic Belt from 2006 to 2020, and uses the general panel model and the Spatial Durbin Model to analyze the correlation between population mobility and regional innovation capacity. The results show that population flow (population inflow) has a significant promotion effect on regional innovation capacity. After considering the spatial dependence, population flow not only directly improves regional innovation capacity, but also has a strong spatial spillover effect. The spatial mobility of labor force population has a significant impact on regional innovation capability, while the influx of the elderly population cannot play a role at the beginning, but when it reaches a certain scale, the influx of the elderly population can promote the development of regional innovation capability. The effect of population flow on regional innovation capacity has significant spatial differentiation characteristics. Population flow has an obvious innovation promotion effect on the Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomerations, super megacities, and cities close to provincial capital cities, while it has a relatively small impact on the innovation capacity of the city agglomerations in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River, the Chengdu-Chongqing urban agglomeration and large cities. Based on the review of existing literature, the possible marginal contributions of this paper are as follows: firstly, in terms of theoretical analysis, this paper not only explains the relationship between population flow and innovation ability, but also analyzes the impact of population flow of different ages on innovation ability; secondly, in terms of empirical analysis, this paper not only studies the correlation between population flow and regional innovation ability, but also fully considers the spatial correlation. On the basis of constructing a common spatial weight matrix, the gravity matrix of economic connection is added to analyze the spatial spillover effect of population flow on regional innovation ability through the spatial econometric model; thirdly, in terms of research depth, this paper further analyzes the heterogeneity of population flow direction, population age structure, city groups, urban population size, and urban geographical location to explore the differential impact of population flow on regional innovation ability. According to the research conclusions of this paper, in order to rationally guide the population flow and promote regional innovation, this paper puts forward the following policy recommendations: firstly, to tap the potential of the population of all ages and make full use of the advantages of the labor force and the elderly population; secondly, to take action in accordance with the local conditions of each city; thirdly, for cities with different population sizes, to formulate differentiated policies to guide the population flow.