候变化对我国种植业化肥投入的影响

气候变化不但会对农业产出产生影响，而且还会对农业生产要素投入产生影响。利用我国26个省2001—2012年的面板数据，实证分析气温和降水量变化对我国种植业生产中化肥使用强度的影响，结果表明：从整体看，年平均气温上升有助于降低化肥的使用强度，而年降水量的增加则会提升化肥的使用强度；对于热带亚热带季风气候区，降水量增加、气温上升均会导致化肥使用强度增加；对于温带季风气候区，气温上升会导致化肥使用强度下降，但是降水量增加对化肥使用强度的影响不显著。气候变化对不同气候区农业生产的化肥投入具有不同的影响，因此有关化肥控制的政策有必要考虑气候因素的影响，政策目标的设定也应体现区域差异。

Impact of Climate Change on the Input of Fertilizer in Crop Farming in China

Climate change not only affects agricultural output but also affects factor input of agricultural production. This paper empirically analyzes the impact of the change of temperature and rainfall on the demand of fertilizer in the production of crop farming by using the panel data of 26 provinces in China during 2001-2012, and the results show that on the whole yearly average temperature ascending is helpful to decrease the demand of fertilizer, but the increase of yearly average rainfall raises the demand of the fertilizer. In tropical and semitropical monsoon climate regions, both the increase of rainfall and the ascending of temperature can raise the demand of the fertilizer, however, in temperate monsoon zone, the ascending of temperature can decrease the demand of fertilizer, but the influence of rainfall increase on the demand of fertilizer is not significant. Climate change has different impacts on fertilizer input in agricultural production in different climate zones. Thus, the policy on controlling fertilizer is necessary to consider the impact of climate factor and its policy target should embody regional difference.