| 铁路货运量与国民经济总量关系的协整研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 于兆宇,张诚,长志坚.铁路货运量与国民经济总量关系的协整研究[J].铁道运输与经济,2011,33(12):1-4. |
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| 作者姓名： | 于兆宇 张诚 长志坚 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 吉林铁道职业技术学院铁道运输系,吉林吉林,132001
2. 华东交通大学经济管理学院,江西南昌,330013 |
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| 摘 要： | 铁路货运是现代交通运输体系的重要组成部分,对国民经济增长具有巨大推动作用。根据近20年铁路货运量和国内生产总值数据,应用协整分析方法、误差修正模型和Granger因果检验对二者进行实证分析。研究表明:铁路货运量与国民经济总量存在长期的均衡关系;同时二者之间仅存在着单向因果关系,通过增强铁路货运能力,满足货运市场需求可以拉动国民经济的快速发展,为实现经济可持续发展奠定良好基础。
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| 关 键 词： | 铁路货运量 国民经济 协整 |
Analysis on Co-integration Relationship between Railway Freight Volume and National Economy |
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| YU Zhao-yu,ZHANG Cheng,Zhang Zhi-jian.Analysis on Co-integration Relationship between Railway Freight Volume and National Economy[J].Rail Way Transport and Economy,2011,33(12):1-4. |
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| Authors: | YU Zhao-yu ZHANG Cheng Zhang Zhi-jian |
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| Institution: | YU Zhao-yu1,ZHANG Cheng2,Zhang Zhi-jian2 (1.Department of Railway Transportation,Jilin Railway Vocational and Technology College,Jilin 132001,Jilin,China 2.School of Economy and Management,East China Jiaotong University,Nanchang 330013,Jiangxi,China) |
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| Abstract: | Railway freight transportation is an important part of modern transportation system,and has great effect to the growth of national economy.Empirical analysis is taken by the application of the co-integration analysis method,the error correction model and Granger causality test according to nearly 20 years of railway freight volume data and GDP.Research shows that: there exists a long-term equilibrium relationship between railway freight volume and the national economy;there is only one-way causality.It can ... |
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| Keywords: | Railway Freight Volume National Economy Co-integration |
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