中国—荷兰中欧班列货源结构时空演化研究

欧盟一直是我国最重要的贸易合作伙伴之一,荷兰则是我国在欧盟的前三大贸易伙伴之一,中荷贸易关系是中欧贸易关系中重要的一环,中欧班列的区域货源结构对中欧班列功能定位和发展规划意义重大。为明确中荷贸易背景下货源结构动态演化过程、特征及机制,在模糊C均值基础上,结合邻接矩阵对聚类分析结果进行修正,将各离散点货源数据进行合并聚类,剖析其时间和空间层面的演变及原因,探究货源结构时空演化趋势。结果表明:2014—2018年,中荷之间货源数量整体呈上升趋势,货源时空布局呈现空间集聚效应,表现为“由整到散”“西高东低”的演化态势。最后提出相关政策建议。

Time-Space Evolution of the Source Structure of China Railway Express under the Background of Sino-Dutch Trade

The EU has always been one of China's most important trading partners,and the Netherlands is one of China's top three trading partners in the EU.Sino-Dutch trade relations are an important part of China-EU trade relations.The regional supply of goods of China Railway Express is of great significance to the functional positioning and development planning of the China Railway Express.To clarify the dynamic evolution process,characteristics and mechanism of the supply of goods under the background of Sino-Dutch trade,the paper combines the adjacency matrix on the basis of fuzzy C-means.The results of the class analysis are corrected,and the data of each discrete point source were combined and clustered,and the evolution and causes of the time and space levels were analyzed,and the temporal and spatial evolution trend of the source structure was explored.The results show that the total supply of goods between China and the Netherlands is on the rise in 2014-2018.The spatial and temporal layout of the supply of goods has a spatial agglomeration effect,which is characterized by the evolution from"complete to scattered"and"west high and low east".Finally,relevant policy recommendations are proposed.