| 房地产价格的托宾Q效应检验——基于PVAR模型的分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 陈健,高波,胡建生,孙学辉.房地产价格的托宾Q效应检验——基于PVAR模型的分析[J].中国房地产,2011(9):26-34. |
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| 作者姓名： | 陈健 高波 胡建生 孙学辉 |
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| 作者单位： | [1]山东建筑大学商学院 [2]南京大学经济学院 |
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| 基金项目： | 本文系教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目“我国城市住房制度改革研究”（项目编号：10JZD0025）、国家社会科学基金重点项目“扩大内需与引导住房理性消费的宏观经济政策研究”（项目编号：08AJY010）和南京大学研究生科研创新基金“转型期我国房地产市场发展与金融稳定的关系研究”（项目编号：2010CW07）的阶段性成果. |
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| 摘 要： | 本文基于面板向量自回归（PVAR）模型，利用中国2002-2008年的省际面板数据，分析了房地产投资与托宾Q值的关系。结果表明，从全国层面看，房地产投资对托宾Q的冲击存在一个很小的正向响应，托宾Q对房地产投资的解释比例很小；从区域层面看，东、中部地区房地产投资的托宾Q效应失效，仅西部地区房地产投资对托宾Q冲击有较小的正向响应。这说明我国当前的房地产市场具有明显的非理性特征，特别是东部、中部地区尤为明显，应加强对囤积土地等套利投机行为的治理及对金融资本投放和使用的监管。
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| 关 键 词： | 托宾Q 房地产投资 PVAR |
The Empirical Test on Tobin＇s Q Effect of Real Estate Prices--the analysis based on PVAR model |
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| Chen Jian Gao Bo Hu Jiansheng Sun Xuehui.The Empirical Test on Tobin＇s Q Effect of Real Estate Prices--the analysis based on PVAR model[J].China Real Estate,2011(9):26-34. |
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| Authors: | Chen Jian Gao Bo Hu Jiansheng Sun Xuehui |
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| Institution: | Chen Jian Gao Bo Hu Jiansheng Sun Xuehui |
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| Abstract: | Based on Panel Vector Auto Regression （PVAR） model, the paper uses Chinese provincial panel data from 2002-2008 to analyze the relationship between the real estate investment and Tobin＇s Q value. The results show that, from the national level, real estate investment has a small positive response on Tobin＇s Q interpreting very small proportion of real estate investment; from the regional level, eastern and central regions of Tobin＇s Q effect of real estate investment does not exist and only western region＇s real estate investment has a small positive response on Tobin＇s Q. This shows that the current real estate investment in China has obvious irrational characteristics, especially in the eastern and central regions. Therefore, arbitrage and speculation such as hoarding of land should be regulated strictly and flow and use of financial capital also should be supervised. |
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| Keywords: | Tobin＇s Q Real estate investment PVAR |
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