| 我国四大城市住宅价格与租金的关系研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 刘仁和,程昆,莫金玲.我国四大城市住宅价格与租金的关系研究[J].中国房地产,2011(9):19-25. |
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| 作者姓名： | 刘仁和 程昆 莫金玲 |
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| 作者单位： | 华南农业大学经济管理学院 |
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| 基金项目： | 本研究得到国家自然科学基金项目“货币错觉与资产价格：中国股票市场与房地产市场的实证研究”（70672024,主持人：刘仁和）和教育部人文社科基金一般项目“基本面、非理性因素与我国住宅价格波动”（09YJA790074,主持人：刘仁和）和华南农业大学国家重点学科建设项目的资助.感谢陈英楠博士和陈奕在资料整理方面提供的帮助. |
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| 摘 要： | 近20年，我国城市住宅价格经历了大幅下跌与上涨，而同期租金逐年下降，房价与租金之间的关系令人关注。本文利用1993年第二季度至2010年第一季度的数据进行实证分析，结果表明北京、上海、广州和深圳的租金指数和房价指数之间不存在协整关系，说明住宅市场价格与租金不存在长期均衡关系，房价严重脱离了租金这一基本面的影响，不再遵循现值理论模型所揭示的两者之间的运行趋势，表明房价泡沫在长期积聚。为了预防市场泡沫破灭对经济体造成的严重冲击，政府应该严格监察与调控房地产市场。
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| 关 键 词： | 房价 租金 房价租金比 协整 住房市场 |
The Empirical Study on the Relationship between Housing Prices and Rents of Four Cities in China |
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| Liu Renhe Cheng Kun Mo Jinling.The Empirical Study on the Relationship between Housing Prices and Rents of Four Cities in China[J].China Real Estate,2011(9):19-25. |
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| Authors: | Liu Renhe Cheng Kun Mo Jinling |
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| Institution: | Liu Renhe Cheng Kun Mo Jinling |
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| Abstract: | Abstract： Housing prices got d rents fell year after year. Peo rents. By using time-series data of 1993 to first quarter of 2010 own and then went up for twenty years in China ple draw attention to the relationships between of Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen from ,the empirical results show that rent index and p while corresponding housing pr the second ices and quarter rice index in these markets prices market serious are not cointegrated. It and rents don＇t exist, and suggests that the long-term equilibrium relationships between housing housing prices deviate seriously from the rents movement. The housing bubbles have been blown up. The government should supervise strictly the markets to prevent the shocks by the bubbles burst. |
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| Keywords: | Housing price Rents Price-rent ratio Cointegration Housing market |
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