时间偏好与居民住房需求的内生波动

从时间偏好内生化角度研究居民住房需求随年龄波动的微观机制，理论模型表明：即使没有其他外生冲击，年龄的变化也会引起居民住房需求的内生波动。具体来看，居民住房需求随年龄存在先上升后下降的倒“U”型波动趋势；进一步地，利用中国家庭住户收入项目调查数据（CHIPS）对理论模型结论进行了实证检验，该结论在修正样本选择性偏误和稳健性检验后仍然成立。因此在长期中必须注意居民住房需求波动对我国房地产市场发展的影响。

Time Preference and Endogenous Volatility of Residents’Housing Demand

This paper studies the micro-mechanism of the residents’housing demand volatility with age from the perspective of endogenous time preference. The theoretical model results show the changes of residents’age can lead to housing demand volatility even when not considering the exogenous shocks. Specifically, there exists an inversed U shape relationship between residents’age and housing demand. Furthermore, this paper tests the theoretical proposition using the CHIPS data and the conclusion is confirmed after controlling the sample selection bias and robust tests.