京沪服务业增长比较分析

利用1978年至2009年的时间序列数据,基于鲍莫尔—富克斯提出的服务业就业份额增长的影响因素理论,对北京和上海的服务业增长进行了实证检验及比较。从计量分析结果来看,京沪服务业劳动生产率的增长都相对滞后,这是两市服务业就业增长较快的主因,而这也正符合鲍莫尔—富克斯假说的基本观点。但是具体说来,北京和上海的服务业增长也存在着明显差异:影响北京服务业就业增长的因素中仅有服务业劳动生产率增长滞后的影响是显著的,地区人均收入增长这一因素的影响则不显著;而服务业劳动生产率增长滞后和人均收入增长这两个因素对上海服务业就业增长均产生了显著的积极影响。

Growth comparison to Beijing and Shanghai’s service industry

Based on Baumol-Fuchs Hypothesis,this paper tests and compares the growth of service of Beijing and Shanghai by the time series data of 1978-2009.The econometric analysis shows that the labor productivity growth of service industry of Beijing and Shanghai is lag behind and it is the main influence factor on the service industry employment growth.This result confirms the basic viewpoints of Baumol-Fuchs Hypothesis.There is prominent difference from Beijing and Shanghai.Beijing’s service industry employment grows because its labor productivity growth lags behind,and the influence of the income growth infection is not prominent.Shanghai’s service industry employment grows because of its income growth and labor productivity growth lag behind,and the two factors are prominent.