结构变化的节能潜力计算的方法论研究

本文介绍了几种计算节能的因素贡献份额的方法,通过分析指出了部门能源强度与技术贡献之间的差别。在定义明确后,经公式计算与分解处理的结果表明,中国在1995～2002年总能源强度下降中,结构节能贡献大约在60%以上; 2002年以后总能源强度呈上升趋势,这时的结构变化推动能源强度上升(对节能起负作用)。符合客观实际的结论应是,结构变化对能源强度变化的影响还是很大的。

A Study on the Calculation Methods of Energy Saving Poteutiality to the Structure Change

In this paper, we introduce some methods on calculating factor contribution to energy saving at first, then indicate distinguish between industry energy intensity and technology contribution calculate and decompose changes in energy intensity. The conclusion is that structural effect on the decrease of total energy intensity in China from 1995 to 2002 is over 60% and structural change drive total energy intensity increase since 2002. The objective fact is that structural change has a great effect on energy intensity variation in China.