中国主导产业演变及其原因研究:基于DPG方法

本文主要基于比例增长偏离方法,利用可比价格投入产出表详细分析了1992～2005年中国主导产业的演变情况及其原因。结果发现,1992～2005年经济发展主要从农业部门转向了工业部门,最重要的主导产业的演变特征是从重化工业向机械电子类产业转变,但不同阶段的次级主导产业也有所不同。出口、固定资产投资和技术已成为主导产业发展与演变的主要推动力量。今后需要进一步加强技术结构以及国内消费对主导产业发展的作用,并加快发展服务业,促进主导产业以及产业结构的优化发展。

The Evolution and Causes of Leading Industry in China:Based on DPG Method

This paper mainly studies the evolutions and the reasons of China’s leading industries from 1992 to 2005,based on input-output at comparable prices by the use of deviation from proportional growth(DPG) method.The results show that,from 1992 to 2005,the transformation of economic development is mainly from agriculture sector to industrial sectors,and the most important evolutionary characteristic of leading industry is a transition from heavy chemical industry to mechanical electronics industry,but the secondary leading industries vary with different stages.Exports,fixed asset investment and technology have become main driving forces of developments and evolutions.In the future,to optimize leading industry and industrial structure,the roles of technology structure and domestic consumption on the development of leading industry need to further strengthen,and service industry should be further developed.