制造业与生产性服务业协同发展对制造效率影响的差异性研究

研究目标：制造业与生产性服务业协同发展对制造效率的差异性影响。研究方法：采用灰色GM（1，N）模型和Malmquist指数模型分别测度制造业与生产性服务业间协同演化发展程度以及制造业各子行业TFP的变化情况，运用门槛回归模型分析两产业间协同发展对制造业生产效率影响的差异性作用。研究发现：制造业与生产性服务业间的良好协同发展对制造业效率的提升具有显著的促进影响，但在不同产业规模、发展水平、创新能力的门槛区间内，其两产业间协同效应对制造业效率的影响呈现非线性特征。研究创新：针对制造业与生产性服务业间互动关系的不确定性和随机性特征，探索性地运用灰色GM（1，N）模型准确测度两产业间协同发展程度；突破既定的线性单向思维，考虑到制造业各子行业间的差异性特征，探究制造业与生产性服务业间协同发展对制造业效率影响的非线性阈值效应。研究价值：检验两产业协同发展对制造业生产效率影响的非线性门槛效应是否源于制造业产业规模、发展水平和创新能力的异质性，为政府制定差异化的产业政策提供参考和理论依据。

The Effect of Coordinated Developmentbetween Manufacturing Industry and Producer Services

Research Objectives: This paper is to discover the effect of coordinated development between manufacturing industry and producer services on manufacturing efficiency. Research Methods: By using the grey model GM (1, N) system and Malmquist index model, the paper measures the co-evolution development degree between manufacturing industry and producer services, and the production efficiency of each manufacturing sub-industry respectively. Then the threshold regression model is adopted to explore the effects on manufacturing efficiency under kinds of coordinated development mode between two industries. Research Findings: The coordinated development between manufacturing industry and producer services has significant influence on promoting the efficiency of manufacturing. And the analysis also shows that under the threshold range of different industry scale, development level and innovation ability, the synergistic effect between industries to manufacturing efficiency has the characteristics of nonlinearity. Research Innovations: According to the uncertainty and randomness characteristic of interaction between manufacturing industry and producer services, the paper utilizes an exploratory application of grey model GM (1, N) system to accurately measure the co-evolution development degree between the two industries. And by taking the different characteristic among sub-industries of the manufacturing industry into account, the nonlinear threshold effect of synergistic development between manufacturing industry and producer services on manufacturing industry efficiency is explored. Research Value: This paper checks whether the nonlinear threshold effect of synergistic development between two industries on manufacturing industry efficiency originates from the heterogeneity of manufacturing industry scale, development level and innovation ability. This paper provides reference and theoretical basis for government to formulate differentiated industrial policy