我国总体并购活动与宏观经济变量的关联性研究——对我国并购浪潮成因的分析

本文对我国总体并购活动与GDP增长率、货币供应量、利率、股价及汇率的关联性实证研究结果表明，并购周期与经济周期具有较强的相关性，具有长期均衡关系；货币供应量、利率、股价和汇率等与总体并购活动具有长期稳定的关系，但短期内，利率与并购活动显著地负相关；货币供应量对总体并购活动有微弱的正相关关系；股价指数和汇率对总体并购活动有负影响，且影响程度很弱。这说明，经济周期和利率是我国并购浪潮形成的主要原因。

The Relative Research on Aggregate Merger and Macroeconomic Variables in China

The article studies the relation between aggregate mergers and growth rate of GDP, money supply, interest rate, stock price index, and exchange rate in China. The results show that Chinese merger cycles are closely related to business cycles, and they are in long - term equilibrium; Money supply, interest rate, stock price and exchange rate also are in long - term equilibrium with aggregate mergers. In the short run, interest rate has significantly negative relation with aggregate mergers, while the influence of money supply, stock price index and exchange rate on aggregate mergers is not significant. Which indicates that business evcles and interest rate are main causes for merger waves in China.