人民币汇率的均衡、错位及其矫正

基于考虑中国和美国基本经济要素的人民币对美元实际汇率、人民币实际有效汇率、美元实际有效汇率的多维度模型，研究了人民币对美元实际汇率、人民币实际有效汇率、美元实际有效汇率的均衡、错位及其矫正。实证研究表明：中国和美国基本经济要素对人民币对美元实际汇率有重要的长期和短期影响，美国基本经济要素对人民币实际有效汇率存在长期和短期溢出效应，中国基本经济要素对美元实际有效汇率存在长期和短期溢出效应。2008～2010年，人民币对美元实际汇率高估5-8%，人民币实际有效汇率高估2-6%，2009～2010年，美元实际有效汇率接近均衡水平。

RMB Exchange Rate Equilibrium,Misalignment and Its Correction

Based on the multi-dimension models of RMB/USD real exchange rate,RMB real effective exchange rate,USD real effective exchange rate with Chinese and American economic fundamentals,This paper studied its equilibrium,misalignment,correction.The empirical study shows:Chinese and American economic fundamentals have important long-term and short-term effect on RMB/USD real exchange rate,American economic fundamentals have long-term and short-term spillover effect on RMB real effective exchange rate, Chinese economic fundamentals have long-term and short-term effect spillover on USD real effective exchange rate.During the period of 2008 to 2010,RMB/USD real exchange rate was overestimated by 5-8%,RMB real effective exchange rate was overestimated by 2-6%,During the period of 2009 to 2010,USD real effective exchange rate was closed to its equilibrium level.