我国城镇居民平均消费倾向与收入分配状况关系的实证研究

中国的有效需求不足现象近年来成为一个被普遍关注的问题,而居民消费需求不足更是成为关注的焦点。本文在前人研究的基础上,从标准的消费者预期效用最大化模型出发,推导出中国城镇居民的个体"短视"消费模型和总量消费模型;运用我国1985～2004年城镇居民消费、收入及其他相关数据,通过误差修正模型和对数线性模型分别对数据进行了计量分析,发现在我国现阶段,城镇居民收入分配差距的扩大引起了居民平均消费倾向的减小,且其长期影响尤为显著。在对计量结果进行分析的基础上,本文给出了若干政策建议。

An Empirical Work on the Relationship between the Average Propensity to Consume and Income Distribution Situation of Urban Households in China

For aggregate demand absence becomes more and more important in recent China, and previous research exploits that household consumption rate have important effect on effective demand, this paper gives a main research on the rela- tionship between average propensity to consume and income distribution situation of urban households in China by using time-series data from 1985 to 2004. Empirical work on ECM model and log-linear model both proves that widening gap of income distribution has distinct negative effect on the average consumptions rate of rural household in China. In the end of this paper, it presents some feasible advices for China on how to improve the average consumptions rate.