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人口普查中遗漏人口数的估计
引用本文:胡桂华,漆莉,迟璐婕.人口普查中遗漏人口数的估计[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2022(1):132-153.
作者姓名:胡桂华  漆莉  迟璐婕
作者单位:重庆工商大学数学与统计学院;重庆工商大学长江上游经济研究中心
基金项目:2021年度国家社科基金后期资助一般项目“人口普查登记误差估计”(21FTJB002)的资助。
摘    要:研究目标:用完整遗漏估计量替代目前使用的未匹配遗漏估计量、逆记录检查遗漏估计量和平衡推算遗漏估计量。研究方法:采取文献解读、成果借鉴和移植及实地调查相结合的方法,研究完整遗漏估计量及其方差估计。研究发现:人口普查遗漏估计不只是要提供遗漏估计值,还要揭示遗漏的原因及其遗漏者的特征;构造普查遗漏估计量,既要包括登记在事后计数调查人口名单而未登记在普查名单的单重遗漏人口,还要包括同时遗漏于这两项调查名单的双重遗漏人口。研究创新:提出完整遗漏估计量。研究价值:完整遗漏估计量有望应用于中国2030年普查遗漏估计,开创世界人口普查遗漏估计应用完整遗漏估计量的先河。

关 键 词:政府统计  人口普查  事后计数调查  分层刀切法

Estimation of the Number of Missed People in the Census
Hu Guihua,Qi Li,Chi Lujie.Estimation of the Number of Missed People in the Census[J].The Journal of Quantitative & Technical Economics,2022(1):132-153.
Authors:Hu Guihua  Qi Li  Chi Lujie
Institution:(School of Math and Statistics,Chongqing Technology and Business University;Economic Research Center of the Upper Reaches of the Yangtze River,Chongqing Technology and Business University)
Abstract:Research Objectives:Replacing the currently used unmatched omission estimator,the reverse record check omission estimator,and the balanced inference omission estimator with complete omission estimator.Research Methods:Adopting the method of combining literature interpretation,achievement reference and transplantation,and field survey to study complete omission estimator and its variance estimation.Research Findings:The estimation of census omissions should not only provide omission estimates,but also reveal the reasons for the omission and the characteristics of the missed persons.Constructing census omission estimator should include both single-omission people,which are counted in the post-enumeration survey list but not in the census list,and double-omission people,which are omitted in the two survey lists.Research Innovations:Proposing complete omission estimator.Research Value:Complete omission estimator is expected to be applied to China's 2030 census omission estimation,creating a precedent for the application of complete omission estimator in world census omission estimation.
Keywords:Government Statistics  Population Census  Post-enumeration Survey  Stratified Jack-Knife Method
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