基于ISP指数的中国能源生产率再测度与分解研究

本文首次采用基于投入冗余的全要素生产率指数来重新测度和分解中国1985-2009年29个省份的能源生产率，该指数优势在于不仅可以测度与分解全要素生产率，而且可以将全要素生产率进一步分解为各种投入要素的生产率，测度的能源生产率还可以分解为能源的技术变化与技术效率变化。研究表明：中国能源生产率年均提高2.89%，总体水平并不高，低于其他国内外文献的测度结果。2002年是中国能源生产率发生变化的关键年份。2002年之前，中国能源生产率年均变化为3.69%，但是波动性较大，2002年之后，中国的能源生产率水平稳步上升。2002年之前，技术变化是能源生产率提升的主要驱动力量，2002年之后，技术效率变化推动了中国能源生产率的稳步上升，表明中国能源生产率开始走上效率提升的轨道。中、西部与东部的能源生产率水平差距越来越大，技术变化是导致东、中、西部之间差距的主要原因。东部地区呈现出“高能效-高增长”的经济发展模式，而中西部则表现为“低能效-低增长”的经济发展模式。全部省份的能源生产率均得到提升，最佳实践省份越来越多，但是省份之间的追赶效应只有0.36%，

Re-estimate and Decomposing of Energy Productivity

This is the first paper based on Input Slack-based Total Factor Productivity Index to re-measure and decompose in 29 provinces in China 1985-2009 energy productivity. Studies have shown that China's energy productivity average of 2.89%, far below the measure of literature results, because traditional methods exist "overrated" question; Prior to 2002, China's average annual change in energy productivity was 3.69%, but the more volatile,after 2002, China's energy productivity increased steadily, most existing studies that after 2000 the declining trend in energy efficiency; before 2002, technological change in the energy productivity enhance the main driving force, and after 2002, the role of technical efficiency is more significant. In the western and eastern growing gap between the energy levels of productivity, technological change is causing the the gap between eastern, central and western .The eastern region showing a "high efficiency - high-growth" economic development model, while the central and western regions is shown as "inefficient- low growth "model , and technological change is causing the eastern, central and western gap between the main reason.All the provinces of the energy production would be enhanced, more and more provinces are the best practicesprovinces, based on static efficiency - Dynamic Productivity matrix analysis shows that Chinese provinces show "Getting stronger,Getting weaker" trend.